In widely distributed articles,
Greg Palast claimed that the Mexican election would be a Florida-style fraud. Joshua Holland at Alternet was all over this yesterday:
Greg Palast's conspiracism isn't helpful
Joshua Holland at 11:50 AM on July 3, 2006.
The last thing anyone needs in what is shaping up to be a hyper-charged post-balloting environment is a bunch of conspiracy theories about the Mexican electoral institutions themselves.
I agree that it is possible that a fraud has occurred, but Palast's story is so historically inaccurate, that it really can't be taken seriously.
Ever-fiery Al Giordano has a much more cogent and reality-based report on what's going on in a discussion at U.S.-Style Post-Electoral Chaos Begins in Mexico. As might be expected, Al has already dismissed the election as fraudulent.
So what's really going on? Let's talk about that after the jump.
The returns so far are preliminary. They show Calderón, the conservative candidate leading by about one per cent, but his party has made impressive gains at the legislative level. López-Obrador, the candidate of the left, is formally presenting claims of serious irregularities in the count.
Al Giordano does a very good job of explaining the accusations here. I am not going to try summarize his arguments because I don't think that I could do them justice. Unlike Palast, he knows how the Mexican system works, and he has been following this very closely for a long time. I examine what he says here. We've known each other for many years and like each other a lot, but we often disagree about Mexican politics. I think that our discussion will give you a good feeling for the issues.
Summing up: Everyone knew by the end of June this was going to be a close election, and we all knew that there would be claims of fraud if that turned out to be true. Now comes the real test. The accusations have to be verified across the board. Well, all the paper is there and it can be examined and shown to the public to prove the charges, if true. Mexico has a very clear legal structure for dealing with election disputes.
That's the route López Obrador is taking. It's the correct one and as a result, my confidence in him has gone up. Can the IFE and the election court resolve the doubts to the satisfaction of the Mexican public? If it can't, the crisis begins.
Until then it's an agonizingly close election with very understandable claims of fraud and irregularities by the loser. Inflammatory and historically inaccurate statements by foreigners are out of place.